[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices retreated after a rapid rise on September 30, influenced by sentiment fluctuations related to Indonesian ore. During the long holiday, close attention should be paid to overseas macro data and policy developments.

SMM Nickel Report on September 30:

Macro and Market News:

(1) The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee convened a meeting on September 29 to discuss major issues for the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The meeting was chaired by General Secretary Xi Jinping. It was decided that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held in Beijing from October 20 to 23.

(2) Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office and spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated on September 29 that despite challenges in economic operations, macro policies will be strengthened at an appropriate time; efforts will be made from both supply and demand sides to expand the market for smart terminals and intelligent entities; policy guidelines for the next generation of smart terminals and intelligent entities will be formulated; and a new-type policy financial instrument with a scale of 500 billion yuan is being actively promoted, with funds to be promptly invested in specific projects.

Spot Market:

On September 30, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 121,000-123,900 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/mt, up 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for spot premiums of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,300-2,400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for spot premiums and discounts of domestic mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel was -150-100 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2511 contract was bolstered by the sentiment following the Indonesian president's closure of illegal tin mines during the night session, closing at 122,000 yuan/mt, up 950 yuan/mt (a 0.78% increase). After the opening on the 30th, there was a pull back, and by the midday close, it was reported at 120,880 yuan/mt, down 0.14%.

As the Chinese National Day holiday approaches, overall trading willingness in the market has declined, with strong risk-averse sentiment before the holiday. Nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums, with the reference range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 120,000-124,000 yuan/mt. During the long holiday, close attention should be paid to overseas macro data and policy trends, which may impact nickel prices after the holiday.